Every jersey and trophy in the game, and your real chance at each one · as of S79 d15
Your ceiling is div 2: Volta ao Porto (youth jersey), 11% to win.
That is the highest division with an honour you win at least 10% of the time. For scale, in youth-jersey races the model's favourite wins 30% of the time, and an even share of a 16-team field is about 6%. So 11% makes you a contender, not the favourite. Above it, you are an outsider in everything.
Top division first. "Expected" adds up your chances at every honour in that division, which is roughly how many you would win in a season if you rode them all. You can't ride them all, so treat it as a measure of how rich the division is for you.
| Division | Honours | Scored | Expected a season if you rode them all | Best shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Div 1 | 26 | 23 | 0.31 | Germany Tour (Youth jersey) 4.6% |
| Div 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | Nederlandse Tour (Youth jersey) 0.1% |
| ranks 25–125 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | Vejle-København (Trophy (classic)) 0.0% |
| Div 2 | 23 | 19 | 0.42 | Volta ao Porto (Youth jersey) 11% |
| Div 3 | 25 | 20 | 0.47 | Giro di Montelbano (Youth jersey) 7.5% |
| Div 4 | 19 | 15 | 0.37 | Men become Gods Tour (GC jersey) 9.0% |
| Div 5 | 10 | 9 | 0.46 | El Corazón de México (GC jersey) 9.1% |
| Div 6 | 8 | 6 | 0.48 | Cesko-Slovensky Pohar (Trophy (cup)) 20% |
| Div 7 | 8 | 7 | 2.10 | El Tocororo (Youth jersey) 61% |
| Div 8 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | nothing we can score |
| Div 9 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | nothing we can score |
Volta ao Porto — youth jersey, div 2: 11% to win, 31% for the podium.
The twelve honours you are most likely to win, whatever the division. Below your division means a drop (the drop works out when); above it means you would have to climb.
| Honour | Kind | Div | Win | Top 3 | Field | Your captain | Getting there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Tocororo | Youth jersey | Div 7 | 61%* | 91% | 6 teams | Mehdi Lamy | drop 4 |
| Tour of the Sanreizan | Youth jersey | Div 7 | 43%* | 81% | 7 teams | Mehdi Lamy | drop 4 |
| Tour of the Sanreizan | GC jersey | Div 7 | 34% | 70% | 9 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 4 |
| El Tocororo | GC jersey | Div 7 | 33% | 74% | 7 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 4 |
| Brebes - Brebes | Trophy (classic) | Div 7 | 24% | 53% | 9 teams | Zolnyanszi Tamas | drop 4 |
| Cesko-Slovensky Pohar | Trophy (cup) | Div 6 | 20% | 44% | 20 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 3 |
| Volta ao Porto | Youth jersey | Div 2 | 11% | 31% | 16 teams | Mehdi Lamy | climb 1 |
| El Corazón de México | GC jersey | Div 5 | 9.1% | 24% | 25 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 2 |
| Men become Gods Tour | GC jersey | Div 4 | 9.0% | 24% | 25 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 1 |
| Monte Rosa Tour | GC jersey | Div 5 | 8.9% | 25% | 25 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 2 |
| Uttendorf - Matrei in Osttirol | Trophy (classic) | Div 7 | 8.8% | 32% | 10 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | drop 4 |
| Coppa della Famiglia del Don | Trophy (cup) | Div 2 | 8.1% | 23% | 24 teams | Heriberto Gamarra | climb 1 |
* From fewer than 3 editions: the other editions had too few comparable riders to score.
All 128 honours, top division first. Highlighted rows are 10% or better.
| Div | Honour | Kind | Win | Top 3 | Your best rider ranks | Your captain | Editions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Div 1 | Essex Tour | GC jersey | 1.0% | 4.5% | 18 of 25 | Leonard Texier | 3 |
| Div 1 | Germany Tour | GC jersey | 1.9% | 8.3% | 12 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Germany Tour | Youth jersey | 4.6% | 19% | 8 of 12 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 1 | Germany Tour | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 1 | La Génération Future (U23) | GC jersey | 2.9% | 10% | 14 of 24 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 1 | La Génération Future (U23) | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 1 | Scottish Heritage Tour | GC jersey | 0.3% | 1.5% | 21 of 22 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Scottish Heritage Tour | Youth jersey | 0.6% | 3.2% | 11 of 12 | Nicholas Florimo | 3 |
| Div 1 | Taiwan Black Bear Tour | GC jersey | 2.6% | 8.9% | 14 of 21 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Taiwan Black Bear Tour | Youth jersey | 0.7% | 5.6% | 9 of 9 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 1 | Tweedaagse van Antwerpen | GC jersey | 0.1% | 0.9% | 24 of 25 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 1 | Tweedaagse van Antwerpen | Youth jersey | 1.6% | 8.5% | 11 of 12 | Nicholas Florimo | 3 |
| Div 1 | Vuelta de los Castillos | GC jersey | 2.8% | 10% | 12 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Vuelta de los Castillos | Youth jersey | 3.1% | 14% | 8 of 13 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 1 | Vuelta de los Castillos | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 1 | Alpe d`Huez Classic | Trophy (classic) | 0.6% | 2.8% | 22 of 25 | Xia Jinxing | 3 |
| Div 1 | Antwerpen - Huy | Trophy (classic) | 1.8% | 7.0% | 19 of 25 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 1 | Astana GP | Trophy (classic) | 0.5% | 2.4% | 22 of 25 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 1 | Bergen Rundtur | Trophy (classic) | 1.1% | 4.8% | 21 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Copa Salsa de Cali | Trophy (cup) | 0.2% | 0.9% | 18 of 18 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Critérium La Provence | Trophy (classic) | 0.3% | 1.7% | 24 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Helsinki GP | Trophy (classic) | 0.1% | 0.4% | 24 of 25 | Leonard Texier | 3 |
| Div 1 | Norwich-London | Trophy (classic) | 0.4% | 1.8% | 19 of 22 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Patryk Drozdowski Trophy Cup | Trophy (cup) | 1.2% | 5.4% | 18 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1 | Roubaix Classic | Trophy (classic) | 2.5% | 9.8% | 15 of 23 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 1 | Zürich-Bern-Zürich | Trophy (classic) | 0.3% | 1.4% | 22 of 24 | Xia Jinxing | 3 |
| Div 1.1 | Nederlandse Tour | GC jersey | 0.1% | 0.3% | 25 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 1.1 | Nederlandse Tour | Youth jersey | 0.1% | 0.9% | 17 of 17 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| ranks 25–125 | Vejle-København | Trophy (classic) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 21 of 21 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Cymru Taith | GC jersey | 2.0% | 8.4% | 11 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Cymru Taith | Youth jersey | 1.9% | 9.2% | 11 of 14 | Nicholas Florimo | 3 |
| Div 2 | Haute-Normandie | GC jersey | 0.1% | 1.0% | 23 of 25 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 2 | Haute-Normandie | Youth jersey | 1.6% | 8.8% | 9 of 12 | Nicholas Florimo | 3 |
| Div 2 | The Two Pass Tour | GC jersey | 2.9% | 11% | 11 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | The Two Pass Tour | Youth jersey | 0.5% | 3.2% | 12 of 13 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 2 | The Two Pass Tour | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 2 | Tour of the Ganges | GC jersey | 1.0% | 5.8% | 14 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Tour of the Ganges | Youth jersey | 2.6% | 11% | 12 of 15 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 2 | Tour of the Ganges | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 2 | Volta ao Porto | GC jersey | 1.2% | 6.3% | 14 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Volta ao Porto | Youth jersey | 11% | 31% | 4 of 16 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 2 | Volta ao Porto | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 2 | Vuelta a Valparaìso | GC jersey | 2.5% | 9.1% | 14 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Vuelta a Valparaìso | Youth jersey | 3.6% | 14% | 11 of 14 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 2 | Vuelta a Valparaìso | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 2 | Ainet - Bruggen | Trophy (classic) | 0.5% | 2.4% | 23 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Coppa della Famiglia del Don | Trophy (cup) | 8.1% | 23% | 5 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Grasse - Toulon | Trophy (classic) | 0.4% | 1.9% | 22 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Helsinki GP Mini | Trophy (classic) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 24 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Lappi Sea GP | Trophy (classic) | 1.0% | 4.4% | 19 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 2 | Minsk CBGP | Trophy (classic) | 1.3% | 6.0% | 18 of 25 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 2 | Mito - Tokyo | Trophy (classic) | 0.2% | 0.9% | 24 of 25 | Fausto Mendiluce | 3 |
| Div 3 | Giro di Montelbano | GC jersey | 1.6% | 7.6% | 16 of 25 | Leonard Texier | 2 |
| Div 3 | Giro di Montelbano | Youth jersey | 7.5% | 25% | 6 of 14 | Nicholas Florimo | 2 |
| Div 3 | Giro di Montelbano | GC jersey | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 3 | Giro di Montelbano | Youth jersey | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 3 | Kangaroo Tour | GC jersey | 0.3% | 1.4% | 23 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Kangaroo Tour | Youth jersey | 1.5% | 7.1% | 13 of 15 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 3 | Karpaty Tyr | GC jersey | 4.4% | 14% | 8 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Karpaty Tyr | Youth jersey | 1.5% | 6.5% | 13 of 17 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 3 | Karpaty Tyr | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 3 | Norway Tour | GC jersey | 2.2% | 8.7% | 13 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Norway Tour | Youth jersey | 5.6% | 20% | 8 of 15 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 3 | Norway Tour | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 3 | Perm Tour | GC jersey | 5.7% | 18% | 8 of 22 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Perm Tour | Youth jersey | 2.0% | 7.8% | 13 of 17 | Mehdi Lamy | 2 |
| Div 3 | Perm Tour | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 3 | Tour of the Western Cape | GC jersey | 2.0% | 8.0% | 15 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Tour of the Western Cape | Youth jersey | 0.6% | 4.8% | 11 of 12 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 3 | Volta da Lagoa dos Patos | GC jersey | 0.1% | 1.1% | 23 of 24 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 3 | Volta da Lagoa dos Patos | Youth jersey | 0.6% | 2.7% | 15 of 16 | Nicholas Florimo | 3 |
| Div 3 | Copa de la Historia de los Andes | Trophy (cup) | 1.4% | 6.0% | 16 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Rotterdam Classic | Trophy (classic) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 24 of 25 | Fausto Mendiluce | 3 |
| Div 3 | Tour of Hawaii | Trophy (classic) | 4.4% | 14% | 11 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Turnai - Turnai | Trophy (classic) | 1.9% | 7.7% | 17 of 25 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 3 | VCK Classic | Trophy (classic) | 2.6% | 8.9% | 14 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 3 | Zyte GP | Trophy (classic) | 1.4% | 6.2% | 19 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Edmonton Red Deer Tour | GC jersey | 7.5% | 22% | 4 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Edmonton Red Deer Tour | Youth jersey | 0.4% | 2.5% | 15 of 16 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 4 | Giro di Sicilia | GC jersey | 0.9% | 4.4% | 21 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 2 |
| Div 4 | Giro di Sicilia | Youth jersey | 0.9% | 4.8% | 15 of 17 | Mehdi Lamy | 2 |
| Div 4 | Giro di Sicilia | GC jersey | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 4 | Giro di Sicilia | Youth jersey | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 4 | Men become Gods Tour | GC jersey | 9.0% | 24% | 4 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Men become Gods Tour | Youth jersey | 2.6% | 11% | 10 of 13 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 4 | Men become Gods Tour | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 4 | Race of the Minutemen | GC jersey | 4.0% | 13% | 9 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Race of the Minutemen | Youth jersey | 7.5% | 24% | 6 of 15 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 4 | Race of the Minutemen | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 4 | Rundfahrt der Schlösser der Alpen | GC jersey | 0.8% | 3.9% | 20 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Rundfahrt der Schlösser der Alpen | Youth jersey | 0.7% | 4.0% | 13 of 14 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 4 | Baltimore Invitational | Trophy (classic) | 0.1% | 0.6% | 24 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Classic Oslo | Trophy (classic) | 1.0% | 4.3% | 21 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 4 | Critérium la Grasse | Trophy (classic) | 1.1% | 5.0% | 21 of 25 | Xia Jinxing | 3 |
| Div 4 | La Coupe de la Soif Éternelle | Trophy (cup) | 0.8% | 3.3% | 19 of 23 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 4 | Orel-Kursk Classic | Trophy (classic) | 0.3% | 1.5% | 22 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 5 | El Corazón de México | GC jersey | 9.1% | 24% | 4 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 5 | El Corazón de México | Youth jersey | 0.2% | 1.5% | 15 of 15 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 5 | Fast on Wheels | GC jersey | 4.1% | 14% | 8 of 25 | Leonard Texier | 3 |
| Div 5 | Fast on Wheels | Youth jersey | 7.8% | 25% | 5 of 17 | Nicholas Florimo | 3 |
| Div 5 | Fast on Wheels | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 5 | Monte Rosa Tour | GC jersey | 8.9% | 25% | 3 of 25 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 5 | Monte Rosa Tour | Youth jersey | 6.3% | 22% | 7 of 16 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 5 | Classico di Siracusa | Trophy (classic) | 1.2% | 4.5% | 19 of 21 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 5 | Juberri - Pas de la Casa | Trophy (classic) | 1.1% | 4.7% | 16 of 21 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 5 | Tian-Shen Stone City Cup | Trophy (cup) | 6.8% | 21% | 6 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 6 | Jawlat Oman Lesalahef | GC jersey | 2.8% | 9.5% | 11 of 23 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 6 | Jawlat Oman Lesalahef | Youth jersey | 5.7% | 20% | 8 of 16 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 6 | Odyssey of the Oryx | GC jersey | 4.3% | 14% | 11 of 24 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 6 | Odyssey of the Oryx | Youth jersey | 7.4% | 24% | 6 of 13 | Mehdi Lamy | 3 |
| Div 6 | Odyssey of the Oryx | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 6 | Bali Classic | Trophy (classic) | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 6 | Budapest Meeting Point | Trophy (classic) | 8.1% | 24% | 7 of 20 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 6 | Cesko-Slovensky Pohar | Trophy (cup) | 20% | 44% | 1 of 20 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 7 | El Tocororo | GC jersey | 33% | 74% | 1 of 7 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 7 | El Tocororo | Youth jersey | 61% | 91% | 1 of 6 | Mehdi Lamy | 1 |
| Div 7 | Tour of the Sanreizan | GC jersey | 34% | 70% | 1 of 9 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 7 | Tour of the Sanreizan | Youth jersey | 43% | 81% | 1 of 7 | Mehdi Lamy | 2 |
| Div 7 | Tour of the Sanreizan | Sprint jersey | not estimated: sprint points are not modelled | ||||
| Div 7 | Brebes - Brebes | Trophy (classic) | 24% | 53% | 3 of 9 | Zolnyanszi Tamas | 3 |
| Div 7 | Cup of the Four Rivers | Trophy (cup) | 5.2% | 22% | 7 of 10 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 7 | Uttendorf - Matrei in Osttirol | Trophy (classic) | 8.8% | 32% | 5 of 10 | Heriberto Gamarra | 3 |
| Div 8 | Design av Småland Cup | Trophy (cup) | not estimated: field too thin to score | ||||
| Div 8 | Giro di Vicenza | Trophy (classic) | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 8 | Zell am See | Trophy (classic) | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 9 | Draguignan - Gorges du Verdon | Trophy (classic) | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 9 | Entrecasteaux GP | Trophy (classic) | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
| Div 9 | Gevelsberg GP | Trophy (classic) | not estimated: not in our results archive | ||||
c rts. For a tour it is the rider's average over the stages, and the youth jersey only counts riders under 25.
The race is then run 4,000 times with the same luck and crash rates as c rts --mc.The same model, run on every one of these races over the last three seasons without you in it, against who really won:
One-day races: the model's favourite won 16 of 90 (18%).
| Model said | Teams | Average predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–5% | 1322 | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 5%–10% | 509 | 7.0% | 7.3% |
| 10%–15% | 106 | 12% | 11% |
| 15%–20% | 24 | 16% | 25% |
| 20%–25% | 16 | 23% | 31% |
| 25%+ | 14 | 33% | 43% |
Tours and cups (GC): the model's favourite won 18 of 121 (15%).
| Model said | Teams | Average predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–5% | 1817 | 1.9% | 2.4% |
| 5%–10% | 523 | 7.2% | 6.3% |
| 10%–15% | 182 | 12% | 16% |
| 15%–20% | 65 | 17% | 9.2% |
| 20%–25% | 38 | 22% | 5.3% |
| 25%+ | 25 | 32% | 32% |
Youth jerseys: the model's favourite won 24 of 81 (30%).
| Model said | Teams | Average predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–5% | 516 | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 5%–10% | 259 | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| 10%–15% | 152 | 12% | 11% |
| 15%–20% | 69 | 17% | 17% |
| 20%–25% | 36 | 22% | 28% |
| 25%+ | 37 | 35% | 43% |
Up to about 15% the predictions match reality closely, and that is where nearly all your numbers sit. Above that the samples are small, and for tours the model runs hot: teams it gave 15–25% won less often than that. So read the big division-7 numbers as "favourite", not as an exact figure.