Cash glut: clubs held 506.7M as the S78 transfer market cooled

Cash

The money is there. It is not moving.

Club-to-club transfers in season 78 came to 52.5M, 24% below the average of the five seasons before, across 240 deals against an average of 282. It was the smallest transfer season in this record, which starts at S66.

It was not for lack of money. The 454 clubs the tracker saw online both early and late in the season held 456.1M in mid-August and 471.9M by the season's end, +3.5%. 263 of them finished richer than they started. Clubs holding more than 1M went from 113 to 120. The typical club held 269k at both ends of the season.

Set the season's spending against the 506.7M held by the 502 clubs active in its last fortnight and the market turned over 0.10 of every 1 in the bank. Clubs could have paid for the whole season's transfers 9.6 times over. The 25 biggest cash piles alone hold 215.5M; who holds them, and how many of those clubs no longer race, is in The Echelon Rich List.

Prices

Cheaper riders, and riders got cheaper

Clubs paid 2.09× rider value on average, down from 2.40× in S77 and the lowest multiple since S66. Part of that fall is simply who was sold: a season of cheaper, older riders drags the average down without anyone paying less for the same rider.

The Echelon's rider model separates the two. It prices every sale by the rider's role, his rank against the whole field, his age and his rider value, so whatever is left over is the market's mood. On that quality-adjusted index, prices fell from 1.02 to 0.92 (S73–77 = 1.00), the lowest reading since the index starts in S68. About 75% of the fall in the raw multiple was a real fall in prices; the rest was the mix of riders sold.

The discount ran right through the market. Unproven riders (rider value under 40,000) sold at 4.21× against 4.65× in a typical S73–77 season; established riders at 1.88× against 2.09×.

The top end

The million-plus deal nearly disappeared

Only 2 transfers passed 1M in S78, against 5.8 in a typical season of the five before. The top of the market also spread out: the five biggest buyers took 18.8% of all spending, against 22.7% on average.

The buyers

The big spenders sat out

The ten clubs that spent most in S73–77 averaged 18.4M a season between them. In S78 they spent 7.61M. Nefal, Vientiane Cycling and Yuri SuperTeam bought nothing at all. Only Comfius and CARCYCL kept to their usual pace.

The season's biggest buyers were Comfius (2.52M), CC Thonon (2.25M), CARCYCL (1.77M), Gominola (1.76M) and Navarone Cycling Team (1.54M).

For two of the old big spenders the bank tells the story. Alpine held between 1.19M and 1.37M through the first half of the season, then paid 1.00M for one rider on day 62, which took its cash down to 267k. One top signing used up the reserve; the club then sold to rebuild it. Hog Bay CT started our record at 490k, its lowest reading, made one small purchase, and sold riders in the last days of the season to finish on 1.71M, more than at any point we recorded.

Flows

Where the money went

Net transfer money by division, each club placed in the division it raced in most in S78: positive means the clubs in that division sold more than they bought. Net sellers: Div 6 (5.01M), Div 1 (1.06M). Net buyers: Div 2 (2.61M), Div 3 (1.98M), Div 4 (1.40M), Div 5 (475k), Div 7 (25k).

Outlook

What to watch in season 79

Season 79 has opened with 14 deals worth 2.21M by day 6, at 1.93× rider value: too early to call, and too few to count. Three questions will decide whether S78 was a pause or a turn.

• Does the cash start moving? The Echelon now records every club's cash on days 30, 60 and 90; the first reading is on 8 November (S79, day 30).
• Do the big spenders come back? Hog Bay ended S78 with more cash than at any point we recorded.
• Does the quality-adjusted index recover from 0.92, or was S78 the start of a cheaper market?