Team Plan · Season 79 day 15 onward · Division 2 · Australia
The division-3 plan worked — you went up. This one is built the opposite way round: not from what the stats say you should do, but from what your own 309 starts proved you actually get paid for.
Every division-2 race still to come this season, ordered by when it races. Signup opens on the sign day and closes about 24 hours before the race starts, so a race whose sign day has already passed is still fair game — those are marked open, and the faded rows are not open yet. Green is a high-conversion entry. The big number is the race day. Tap any row for the full calendar with all the detail.
Season 78 beat season 77 on every measure that matters, and it did it with ten fewer riders on start lines. That is the part worth holding on to: the gain came from choosing races, not from racing more.
On 319 starts in S77 versus 309 in S78. Points per start rose from 2.68 to 3.57 — a 33% improvement in efficiency, which is the number that actually reflects decision quality.
Including outright wins at Dresden–Plauen and Firenze–Fiesole — both races the div-3 plan told you to enter — plus Vodo lolo ka galili, Lago Titicaca and Bergen ITT.
Entries rose 73 → 81 and the rate did not drop: 6.58 → 6.59 points per start, 480 → 534 points. Move 1 of the old plan was "enter more time trials". You did, and it scaled cleanly.
Three sources of points in S78 were ones the division-3 page had explicitly written off. The two new race types alone added 222 points between them, and the third is a rider the model had discarded. They are the most valuable thing that happened, because they are the parts no model told you to do.
The old page listed SP under "scores nothing" — 6 starts, 0 points in S77. In S78 Gamarra took 80 points from sprint stages inside tours: Perm Parade 5th, San Cataldo 6th, Harstad-Bodø 8th, Ålesund-Bergen 9th. A tour stage field is the tour's field, not an open sprint field.
198 → 340 points, and the per-start rate went 1.69 → 3.43. Two of the five wins came from here. One of them, Lago Titicaca–La Paz, is a race the old page had used as evidence to withdraw a recommendation — Ruey won it.
Nicholas Florimo scored 188 points from 11 starts. Arends scored 110 from 27. The div-3 page ranked Florimo 362nd on its age-adjusted composite and assigned him the throwaway slots. He out-earned every team-mate per start, four times over.
The scoring model was re-run over your whole S78 season — every one of the 277 starts it could rate — and graded against what really happened. It is not uniformly right or wrong. It is accurate for time trials and badly pessimistic for road races, and that single split changes which races you should enter.
| Race kind | Model said | Entries | Scored | Hit rate | Points | Pts / entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time trial | top 9 | 17 | 10 | 59% | 396 | 23.3 |
| Time trial | 10–25 | 16 | 2 | 13% | 48 | 3.0 |
| Time trial | 26+ | 38 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0.0 |
| Road race | top 9 | 4 | 0 | — | 0 | 0.0 |
| Road race | 10–25 | 28 | 9 | 32% | 390 | 13.9 |
| Road race | 26+ | 174 | 3 | 2% | 180 | 1.0 |
The model scores each rider alone. A time trial is each rider alone — six independent rides, no captain, Team Spirit ignored — so the model and the race agree, and it lands within 0.3 places on average across your twelve S78 time-trial results.
A road race is a captain plus a team working for him. That support is real points the model cannot see, so it systematically under-rates a properly-backed captain. That is why your road scoring came from the 10–25 band and not the top-9 band: when the model says your captain is 15th, a full squad behind him makes him competitive.
Add the two dead bands together and the scale of the opportunity is obvious. This is not a squad problem — it is 212 signup decisions.
38 time-trial entries at 26+ returned zero. 174 road entries at 26+ returned 180 points, about one point per start. These starts are the entire budget for everything below — they cost nothing to stop.
Gamarra 330, Florimo 188, Texier 178, Soisalo 158, Ruey 130, Arends 110, Tamas 10. The other fifteen took roughly 155 starts between them for nothing.
The div-3 plan asked you to release them a season ago. Both are still on the roster with zero starts in S78, as in S77. They are two of twenty-two squad places that cannot be filled.
This is the reassuring part. The bar for a scoring finish barely moves between division 3 and division 2 — the squad that just won promotion is, on paper, still a scoring squad.
| Rider | Age | Composite | Div-2 bar | Margin | S78 points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Soisalotime trial | 35 | 236 | 210.4 | +26 | 158 |
| Leonard Texiertime trial | 26 | 228 | 210.4 | +18 | 178 |
| Nicholas Florimotime trial | 23 | 225 | 210.4 | +15 | 188 |
| Wilfried Arendstime trial | 30 | 205 | 210.4 | −5 | 110 |
| Jochen Rueyhills | 40 | 116.0 | 109.2 | +7 | 130 |
| Arjan Woeringhills | 26 | 112.5 | 109.2 | +3 | 0 |
| Heriberto Gamarrahills · captain | 30 | 109.0 | 109.2 | −0.2 | 330 |
| Osman Atilahills | 35 | 108.0 | 109.2 | −1 | 0 |
Three of your four time trialists clear the division-2 bar comfortably. Your hill captain does not. Gamarra sat above the division-3 bar and is now exactly level with the division-2 one — and he personally scored 330 of your 1,104 points. The composite is age-blind and he is 30, at peak, with Team Spirit 100, so in practice he will still beat it; but the margin that carried division 3 is gone.
That is what the $464,369 is for. Hill support for Gamarra is the single highest-value purchase on the board, and Woering (112.5) and Atila (108) are already most of a train.
Each one is a direct read of the table above. They compound in this order — move 3 pays for moves 1 and 2.
He returned 17.1 points per start on 11 starts; Arends returned 4.1 on 27. Swap their volumes. Florimo is 23, clears the division-2 bar by 15, and is the only scoring rider on the roster who is still improving. Give him the full time-trial programme and run him steady, not risky — he is a contender now, not a lottery ticket.
Free · signup onlyThis is where the 59%-conversion band lives, and tours stack it: one signup yields several scoring rides. Volta ao Porto alone has three time-trial stages with three or four Dodge riders projecting top-9 in each — roughly ten scoring slots from a single entry. Then Le Havre Prologue (Arends 2nd, Texier 4th, Florimo 4th), Valparaìso ITT (Florimo 3rd, Arends 4th, Texier 4th) and Aveiro ITT (Arends 2nd).
Free · scheduling only212 starts for 180 points. Never enter a time trial where the model has you 26th or worse — that was 38 entries and not one point. For road races the cut is softer, because the model under-rates captains: enter at 25th or better when Gamarra or Ruey leads a full squad, and skip it when they don't. Those freed starts fund moves 1 and 2.
Free · signup onlyTwo roster slots have been unusable for two seasons. Releasing them refunds their value and opens the only squad places you have. With $464,369, the target is hill support: Gamarra is level with the division-2 bar and carries 30% of your points. Woering and Atila are already close — one genuine hl 85+ climber behind him protects the biggest single asset you own.
Costs cash · opens 2 slotsEvery division-2 race where a Dodge rider projects into a band that actually converted in S78, ordered from today (season 79, day 15) forward. 34 of them are still to sign this season — starting with Luxembourg TT, which signs today — and the rest are the S79 calendar proper from sign day 0. Each rider's projected place is shown. Sign day is the actionable date, not race day. Time trials have no captain — every listed rider scores independently, so a race with four names is four chances. The last column says which season's field the projection was ranked against: a race still to come this season has not been run yet in S78, so it is ranked against its S77 running instead. The Our best column is your best finish in that race across the last three seasons — the projection cannot see captain support, form or a rider's record, and your own result can. Green means it scored, and the season is named when it is not the one just gone. It is deliberately the best rather than the most recent, because the most recent ride is often a B-squad or practice outing that says nothing about the race.
| Sign | Day | Race | Type | Country | Dodge riders — projected place | Slots | Field | Our best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of this season — racing days 16–90, act now | |||||||||
| ○ | 11 | 19 | Burco - Naasa Hablood | untyped | Somalia | Heriberto Gamarra 25 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ★ | 11 | 19 | Seven Islands of Mumbai ITT | TT | India | Leonard Texier 6 | 1 | S78 | 12thLeonard Texier S77 |
| 9 | Volta ao Porto 10 stages, all must be ridden · only 4 worth scoring, the other 6 are the cost | ||||||||
| ★ | 9 | 22 | Porto PrologueStage 1 | TT | Portugal | Wilfried Arends 8 · Leonard Texier 6 · Nicholas Florimo 8 | 3 | S78 | — |
| ★ | 9 | 22 | Aveiro (ITT)Stage 5 | TT | Portugal | Wilfried Arends 3 · Leonard Texier 3 · Nicholas Florimo 5 | 3 | S78 | — |
| ○ | 9 | 22 | Vinhais - VinhaisStage 8 | SP | Portugal | Heriberto Gamarra 24 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ★ | 9 | 22 | Porto (ITT)Stage 9 | TT | Portugal | Leo Soisalo 9 · Wilfried Arends 8 · Leonard Texier 3 · Nicholas Florimo 5 | 4 | S78 | — |
| ○ | 15 | 23 | Rosenheim - Königsbrunn | HL | Germany | Heriberto Gamarra 24 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 20 | 28 | Vejle Bakker | HL | Denmark | Heriberto Gamarra 12 · Arjan Woering 18 | 2 | S78 | 16thHeriberto Gamarra S77 |
| ★ | 21 | 29 | London TT | TT | England | Leonard Texier 8 | 1 | S78 | 1st · 130Wilfried Arends S77 |
| ● | 22 | 30 | Aleksander Hetlands Æresritt | untyped | Norway | Heriberto Gamarra 8 | 1 | S78 | 93rdJochen Ruey S77 |
| 19 | Haute-Normandie 4 stages, all must be ridden · only 1 worth scoring, the other 3 are the cost | ||||||||
| ★ | 19 | 33 | Le Havre PrologueStage 1 | TT | France | Wilfried Arends 3 · Leonard Texier 3 · Nicholas Florimo 3 | 3 | S78 | — |
| ● | 25 | 33 | Bochum Fahrt | untyped | Germany | Heriberto Gamarra 11 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 36 | 44 | Nuoro GP | HL | Italy | Heriberto Gamarra 15 | 1 | S78 | — |
| 32 | Cymru Taith 3 stages, all must be ridden · only 1 worth scoring, the other 2 are the cost | ||||||||
| ★ | 32 | 46 | Newport ITTStage 2 | TT | Wales | Leonard Texier 8 | 1 | S78 | 12thLeo Soisalo S77 |
| ○ | 39 | 47 | Sun City Wild Ride | untyped | South Africa | Heriberto Gamarra 17 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 40 | 48 | Nidelva Intervallstart | untyped | Norway | Leonard Texier 14 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 45 | 53 | Gira amahoro | untyped | Burundi | Heriberto Gamarra 14 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ○ | 49 | 57 | Gran Premio EEO | HL | Costa Rica | Heriberto Gamarra 21 | 1 | S78 | — |
| 51 | Vuelta a Valparaìso 6 stages, all must be ridden · only 2 worth scoring, the other 4 are the cost · stages sign on different days | ||||||||
| ● | 51 | 59 | Valparaìso - Valparaìso (ITT)Stage 1 | untyped | Chile | Leo Soisalo 7 · Wilfried Arends 4 · Leonard Texier 3 · Nicholas Florimo 3 · Mehdi Lamy 15 | 5 | S78 | — |
| ● | 51 | 60 | El Tabo - CuncumenStage 3 | untyped | Chile | Heriberto Gamarra 7 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 53 | 61 | Volta Ciclística do Iguaçu | HL | Brazil | Heriberto Gamarra 15 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 56 | 64 | Tour of Luzon | HL | Philippines | Heriberto Gamarra 7 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 58 | 66 | Bagno di Bomagna GP | HL | Italy | Heriberto Gamarra 11 · Arjan Woering 22 | 2 | S78 | — |
| ○ | 60 | 68 | Bielsko Biala - Zakopane | DH | Poland | Heriberto Gamarra 21 | 1 | S78 | — |
| 60 | Tour of the Ganges 7 stages, all must be ridden · only 2 worth scoring, the other 5 are the cost · stages sign on different days | ||||||||
| ● | 60 | 68 | Sahebganj PrologueStage 1 | untyped | India | Leo Soisalo 16 · Wilfried Arends 16 · Heriberto Gamarra 22 · Leonard Texier 10 · Nicholas Florimo 16 | 5 | S78 | — |
| ● | 60 | 69 | Patna - Rohtasgarh FortStage 2 | untyped | India | Heriberto Gamarra 12 · Fausto Mendiluce 25 | 2 | S78 | — |
| ○ | 63 | 71 | Race of Man | HL | Isle of Man | Heriberto Gamarra 21 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 68 | 76 | Giro di Firenze | untyped | Italy | Heriberto Gamarra 9 | 1 | S78 | 8th · 40Heriberto Gamarra S78 |
| ○ | 70 | 78 | Cáceres - Cuiabá | HL | Brazil | Heriberto Gamarra 24 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ○ | 74 | 82 | Krka Kaskada | untyped | Croatia | Heriberto Gamarra 20 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 75 | 83 | Eryri Classic | HL | Wales | Heriberto Gamarra 7 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ★ | 79 | 87 | Aalborg Timetrial | TT | Denmark | Leonard Texier 7 | 1 | S78 | 26thNicholas Florimo S78 |
| 78 | Coppa della Famiglia del Don 3 stages, all must be ridden · only 1 worth scoring, the other 2 are the cost · stages sign on different days | ||||||||
| ● | 78 | 88 | Fantoft - FløyenStage 3 | untyped | Norway | Heriberto Gamarra 14 | 1 | S78 | 14thHeriberto Gamarra S78 |
| ● | 80 | 88 | Morne Seychellois Trophy | HL | Seychelles | Heriberto Gamarra 13 | 1 | S78 | — |
| Season 80 — the full division-2 calendar | |||||||||
| 0 | The Two Pass Tour 4 stages, all must be ridden · only 3 worth scoring, the other 1 is the cost | ||||||||
| ● | 0 | 6 | The Tip TrackStage 1 | untyped | New Zealand | Leo Soisalo 25 · Heriberto Gamarra 10 · Leonard Texier 18 | 3 | S79 | — |
| ○ | 0 | 7 | Picton - MurchisonStage 2 | untyped | New Zealand | Heriberto Gamarra 17 | 1 | S79 | — |
| ○ | 0 | 8 | Lewis Pass - GreymouthStage 3 | untyped | New Zealand | Heriberto Gamarra 17 | 1 | S79 | — |
| ● | 3 | 11 | Taith o Bannau Brycheiniog | untyped | Wales | Heriberto Gamarra 6 | 1 | S79 | — |
| ○ | 7 | 15 | Tavira - Faro | SP | Portugal | Heriberto Gamarra 19 | 1 | S78 | — |
| ● | 85 | 3 | Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa Cup | untyped | Indonesia | Heriberto Gamarra 20 · Mehdi Lamy 9 | 2 | S79 | — |
| ● | 86 | 4 | Marathon | untyped | Greece | Wilfried Arends 24 · Leonard Texier 15 | 2 | S79 | 32ndWilfried Arends |
| ○ | 87 | 5 | Hügel Fahrt | HL | Germany | Heriberto Gamarra 19 · Arjan Woering 24 | 2 | S79 | 14thHeriberto Gamarra |
| ○ | 90 | 8 | Royal Dartmoor Tour | HL | England | Heriberto Gamarra 20 | 1 | S79 | 33rdSammy Cooke |
The division-3 page did not record its own method anywhere but in its prose, and the working session is gone. This page therefore rebuilds the scorer from first principles — and then, unlike its predecessor, proves the rebuild against a season of real results before using it.
Race score = Σ(rider stat × racestat[race weight]) + tt × 1.2, multiplied by the rider's age performance factor. Weights are convex — a race weight of 8 is worth 22.0 and a weight of 3 only 4.5 — so a specialist beats a generalist far more than raw stats suggest. Riders are then ranked against every finisher of that same race in S78, rather than against an abstract division pool. Races with fewer than 20 rated finishers are excluded.
Run over Dodge's own S78 season, the rebuilt scorer reproduces your twelve time-trial results to 0.3 places on average. That is the evidence the reconstruction is the right engine. Its known blind spot — captains and Team Spirit in road races — is measured rather than assumed, and is the reason the road and time-trial bands above are different.
A race later in this season has not been run yet, so it has no S78 field to rank against. Ranking only against this season silently drops every remaining race of the season and leaves the plan with nothing to do now — which is what the first version of this page did, jumping straight to sign day 83. Those races are therefore ranked against their S77 running instead, marked in the Field column. It is the same race with the same profile, but the field is a season older, so treat those placings as slightly more uncertain than the S78-ranked ones.
The in-house command c xtbr / c xrbr — almost certainly what built the division-3 page — answers a different question: it ranks a rider against the entire division pool and lists only the races where he makes its top 30. That is a division-elite filter, not a finishing-place estimate, and the two are easy to confuse.
Run on Soisalo for division 3, it returned five races. His actual season: Norway Prologue 2nd (flagged), Perm ITT 9th (flagged), and Vodo lolo ka galili 1st, 100 points — which it never listed. It found two of his three scoring races and missed his biggest win. Run for division 2 it returns exactly one race, Nidelva Intervallstart — the same race this page's method independently rates as his best non-tour ride. The two engines agree where they overlap; the field-based one additionally catches the tour time-trial blocks that the pool filter discards.
Both are worth having, and the reconciliation matters for how you read this plan: a division-2 race draws about 138 starters from a pool of roughly 2,200, so only ~6% of the division contests any given race. You do not have to be a division-elite rider to finish in the points — you have to be better than the people who actually turned up. Dodge has one race where Soisalo is division-elite, and sixty-one where its riders should finish in the money. In division 2 this team will not score on absolute quality. It will score on selective entry — which is precisely what season 78 proved it can do.
Projections use current rider stats against last season's fields, so rivals who train over the break will be stronger than shown. The road "10–25" band rests on 28 entries and nine scores; the road top-9 band rests on four entries and is too small to read. Everything tagged Observed is measured from your results and has held up; everything else is targeting, not fact.
Sources. Dodge results and rider stats from the OCM database, season 79 day 15. Division bars are the mean of every top-9 finisher in the relevant S78 race type. Cash and division confirmed live from the team page. The query behind the calendar is committed alongside this page as sql/dodgeDiv2Plan.sql, so every number here can be regenerated — which is the one thing the division-3 page could not do. The full method is written up at knowledge/patterns/team-season-plan-method.md.