Team Audit · Season 78 · Division 3 · Australia

Dodge

You are a time trial team racing a climber's calendar. You entered 5 of the 18 division-3 time trials that ran — and five more entries finished just outside the money.

856 pts in S77 4th in Australia 22 riders Manager: Zee

Revisions

Updated 30 July 2026 · Season 78, day 20

Move 3, the downhill programme, is withdrawn. Ranked against the actual top-30 finishers in all twelve remaining division-3 DH races, Xia Jinxing places last or near-last in every one, and the training camp moves him only ~29th to 24th at best. The recommendation rested on dg = dh + cl/2, a composite that ignores hl, tq, age and experience. It is struck through below rather than deleted.
The time trial ranking is now age- and experience-adjusted — raised by Zee, and it was the thread that exposed the error above. On the raw composite Soisalo read 5th in division 3; adjusted he is 32nd, Texier 19th → 141st, Florimo 22nd → 362nd. The "three riders in the top 25" claim is retracted.
Season totals fall to 790 / 990 / 1,200 from 990 / 1,190 / 1,400. Third place is no longer free — only the stretch case passes team+jayco.
Added Move 3 — time trial effort. Dodge runs every TT at Risky. That suits the weak slots but costs the top three, since the guidance is Steady for a top 10–15 contender and Risky only where the rider would finish poorly anyway. It also explains results I could not previously account for: the swings between 1st and 53rd are Risky landing on both tails, and my placings are calibrated for Steady, which is why they missed in both directions.
Every composite on this page is age-blind — tt+tq+fr, dg and hh all sum raw stats and ignore age and experience. Two of the three findings that failed were built on them. Claims are now tagged Observed (measured from your results) or Modelled (my estimate); the Observed ones have held up throughout, the Modelled ones are where every correction has landed.
Earlier: all division-2 framing removed. raceresult.div is a per-edition rank band, not a team eligibility bracket, so no cross-division entitlement is claimed.

Where you sit — Australian teams, S77 season points

agb+procycling

1,810 pts · div 2 · 539 starts

1,810

temora+tornadoes

1,404 pts · div 2 · 242 starts · 9 wins

1,404

team+jayco

1,174 pts · 352 starts

1,174

dodge

856 pts · div 3 · 319 starts · 2.68 pts/start

856

Observed measured from Dodge's actual race results Modelled my race-score estimate — treat as targeting, not fact

The Good

You own more than you field

Three of the assets below are already at contender grade for division 3. One of them has never been put on a start line.

best TT rider, div-3 rank

A usable time trial group — smaller than it first lookedModelled

On tt+tq+fr adjusted for age and experience, Soisalo ranks 32nd of ~2,970 riders racing division 3 — top 1%, and comfortably your best. Arends is 99th, Texier 141st, Florimo 362nd. On the raw composite these read 5th, 144th, 19th and 22nd; the raw version flatters the young and the old alike and should not be used.

hill helpers at grade

Your climbers were never the problemModelled

Division-3 top-10 finishers in hill races average hh 103. You have Ruey 116, Woering 111, Gamarra 109, Atila 108 and Jans 101. That is a complete hill train, already on the roster.

times fielded

A downhill team you have never racedWithdrawn

Xia dg 116, Vandommele 115, Ruey 103, Degn 95, Bekkers 88, Brigham 87 — a full downhill-guide train. A division-3 DH captain earned 200–290 points from four to six starts last season. This does not hold: ranked against the actual fields, Xia is last or near-last in all twelve remaining DH races. The dg composite ignored hl, tq, age and experience.

of 64 races

Gamarra is a genuine hill captainModelled

Across the 64 hill, climb and all-rounder races in division 3 he rates top-9 — the scoring zone — in 23 of them. He is 29, at his performance peak now.

Time trial riders on the proper composite — tt+tq+fr, ranked within each division pool
Rider	Age	exp	FR	TQ	TT	tTT	div 1	div 2	div 3
Leo Soisalo	35	6.38	67	79	90	236	12	3	5
Leonard Texier	25	4.39	67	69	91	227	43	29	19
Nicholas Florimo	22	2.47	75	53	97	225	50	36	22
Wilfried Arends	30	5.78	59	47	99	205	167	169	146
Mehdi Lamy	21	1.84	50	40	71	161	546	665	753

Why the composite, not tt: 89 riders share tt 99, so the tt column is a tie rather than a ranking. Time trials weight FR at 1–8 and TQ at 3–9, so tt+tq+fr is what actually separates them. Filter on tt alone when scouting and you get 89 undifferentiated names.

The Bad

The calendar, not the roster

Every item here is a scheduling decision rather than a squad weakness — which is why they are free to fix.

5/18

division-3 TTs entered

You skipped 13 of your own division's time trialsObserved

Eighteen division-3 time trials ran in S77 and you entered five — two so far this season. Time trials are your highest-volume earner and the only race type that pays all six entrants, yet you contest barely a quarter of them.

starts, zero points

Ninety-six starts that could not scoreObserved

Your HL, CB, CLDH, SP and ALL entries produced nil across two seasons. Not poor returns — nothing. Those start slots are the budget for everything in this plan.

0.83

of winner's card

The right captain, the wrong racesModelled

Gamarra was entered at Brescia Uphill carrying 83% of the winner's card — unwinnable on paper. He skipped Lyon GP, Sarajevo History Hillers and Fill Fill, where he rates top-5.

entries at 11th–13th

Points stop at 9th — you finished just outside, five timesObserved

Budapest ITT 11th, Seven Islands 12th, Newport 12th, Fort William 12th, Odense 13th. Both division 2 and division 3 pay the top nine and nothing below. These are the cheapest points available: races you already enter.

DP, on five riders

Five riders racing under-recoveredObserved

DP saturates at 90. Ruey, Vandommele, Brigham, Degn and Xia all sit at 76 — including Xia, whose dh 83 is top-2% in the division and who has never scored a point.

Where the points come from — points per start by race type, S77–78 · division 2/2.1/3 · all types shown

ODD

only 6 starts · 60 pts · 10.00/start · 2 such races exist

10.0

84 starts · 570 pts · 6.79/start · 3 wins — by far the most volume

6.79

12 starts · 70 pts · 5.83/start · 1 win

5.83

untyped

30 starts · 138 pts · 4.60/start

4.60

HLSP

36 starts · 110 pts · 3.06/start

3.06

30 starts · 60 pts · 2.00/start

2.00

HLCL

48 starts · 78 pts · 1.63/start

1.63

24 starts · 0 pts

30 starts · 0 pts

CLDH

30 starts · 0 pts

6 starts · 0 pts

ALL

6 starts · 0 pts

Pays its way Thin Scores nothing

Why time trials are different

Scoring chances, not races — division-3 calendar · a TT pays every entrant, a road race pays one

TT — 21 races

21 races × 6 scoring slots = 126 chances

126

SP — 34 races

34 races × 1 scorer = 34

Hills — 27 races

HL + HLSP + HLCL = 27 races × 1 scorer

DH — 19 races

DH + CLDH = 19 races × 1 scorer

CB — 18 races

18 races × 1 scorer

CL — 18 races

18 races × 1 scorer

A time trial has no captain and no team-mate role — six slots, six independent results, Team Spirit ignored.

Twenty-one division-3 time trials offer 126 scoring chances — while every road discipline you own, combined across 116 races, offers 116. The smallest block on the calendar is the richest, and it is the one you contest least.

The Ugly

Riders who cannot score anywhere

Seven roster slots return nothing in any race type, in any division. Some are recoverable; most are funding.

unusable roster spots

Ian Defley (94) and Fenton Sommers (89)Observed

Both are well past retirement age and cannot be entered in races at all — confirmed by zero starts across two seasons. These are not underperforming riders, they are two of your 22 squad places that simply cannot be filled. Release them and the slots become usable.

starts, 0 points

The climbing programme returns nothingObserved

Degn (cl 93, age 39), Brigham, Atila and Xia: 65 starts between them, not one point. Degn's cl 93 sits behind an age multiplier of 0.69.

158

of ~180 trained

Mehdi Lamy is already spentObserved

At 21 he has used 158 of a roughly 180-point training ceiling, and rates 24th at best in any division-2 or division-3 race. He is also your largest single funding source at 233k.

The Fix

Three moves, no transfers

These compound, so the order matters — each one funds start slots or race days for the next.

Enter the 13 time trials you skipped

You already field six riders in every TT you enter — that part is right. The gap is races: five entered of eighteen that ran. Then convert the near-misses — five entries finished 11th–13th when the money stops at 9th, which is the cheapest scoring you have available.

Free · no transfers · no training

+340points

Re-aim Gamarra

Same captain, same hill train, better races. Enter Lyon GP, Sarajevo History Hillers, Fill Fill and Firenze–Fiesole; skip Brescia Uphill and Boat of Garten, where the card says he cannot win.

Free · scheduling only

+150points

Match time trial effort to the rider's oddsObserved

You run every TT at Risky. That is right for your weak slots and wrong for your best three. Risky widens the spread — when it fails the rider goes “very bad”, not slightly worse — and the accepted guidance is Steady for a top 10–15 contender, Risky only for a rider who would finish poorly anyway. Soisalo, Arends and Texier project top-12 in most of their fitted races, so they are paying a variance penalty they do not need. Keep Risky for Florimo and slots 5–6.

Free · signup setting only

+?upside

—

Field the downhill team you ownWithdrawn — was Move 3

The case was that Xia is dg 116 at 24 with ~95 training points spare, needing only hl and tq. Checked against the actual fields, it fails: he ranks last or near-last in all twelve remaining division-3 DH races, and the camp moves him about 29th to 24th at best. Do not spend the training on this.

Withdrawn 30 Jul 2026

+0points

Move 1 evidence — your own division-3 time trial return
Season	TTs ran	Entered	Missed	Starts	Points	Pts/start
S77	18	5	13	30	80	2.67
S78 (to d19)	—	2	—	12	100	8.33
Combined	—	7	—	42	180	4.29

Why Move 3 was withdrawn — Xia against the actual top-30 field, every remaining division-3 DH race
Race	Type	Sign	Xia now	Xia trained	Gamarra	Field
La Chute de Chréa	DH	20	30	29	17	29
Mosjøen-Trondheim	CLDH	27	30	30	17	29
Bordano GP	DH	38	28	28	19	29
Mosoc Llacta - Limatambo	DH	64	29	24	13	29
Lago Titicaca - La Paz	DH	87	29	28	8	29

The Calendar

Season 78, division 3 — what to enter and who leads

Forty-three races from sign day 21 onward where a Dodge rider projects inside the top 12. Sign day is the actionable date, not race day. Time trials have no captain — all six slots score independently, so the three best entrants are listed instead, with the effort each should run: steady for anyone projecting top-12 in that race, risky for the rest. Tamas is your only cobbles rider — there is no pave-pacer train behind him, so his CB entry is a lone captain and the predicted place is optimistic. Where the race day is earlier than the sign day (Hellur GP, Lago Titicaca, Yarmouth GP), the race runs in the following season.

The bottleneck: Gamarra leads 28 of these

He cannot ride them all — a realistic ceiling is around 25 starts. Prioritise his best cards and let the rest go: Seven Spices (3rd), Firenze–Fiesole (3rd), Kalush–Slavskev (3rd), Sarajevo History Hillers (4th), Bodø-Mosjøen (4th), then the 5th-place group — Ochjor, Tarbela, Hooglede, Vlorë-Sarandë, La Unión.

S78 division-3 race plan · predicted place and expected points, plain form (no TF)
Sign	Day	Race	Type	Kind	Lead rider	Pred.	Exp. pts
21	29	Dresden - Plauen	HL	single	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
22	30	Tripoli - Tajura - Tripoli	—	single	Soisalocaptain	9	5–20	●
23	31	Coustouges ITT	TT	single	Arends 10 / Brigham 15 / Soisalo 15steady: Arends · rest risky	10	0–10	○
27	41	Prologue (Norway Tour)	TT	TOUR	Soisalo 1 / Arends 2 / Texier 6steady: Soisalo, Arends, Texier · rest risky	1	55–95	★
27	41	Bergen (ITT)	TT	TOUR	Soisalo 1 / Texier 8 / Arends 8steady: Soisalo, Texier, Arends · rest risky	1	55–95	★
27	41	Bodø-Mosjøen	HLSP	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	4	25–50	●
29	37	Tour of Hawaii	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	9	5–20	●
31	39	Mackay Time Trial	TT	single	Soisalo 8 / Arends 11 / Texier 17steady: Soisalo, Arends · rest risky	8	5–20	●
32	40	Fill Fill - Nefasit - Fill Fill	HL	single	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
36	44	Kesch Peak Climb	TT	single	Arends 11 / Soisalo 20steady: Arends · rest risky	11	0–10	○
38	52	Perm - Perm (ITT)	TT	TOUR	Soisalo 3 / Arends 5 / Texier 8steady: Soisalo, Arends, Texier · rest risky	3	55–95	★
38	52	Ochjor - Ochjor	HLSP	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	5	25–50	●
39	47	Moustier GP	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	6	25–50	●
40	48	Seven Spices of Halmahera	ODD	single	Gamarracaptain	3	55–95	★
41	49	Fort William ITT	TT	single	Soisalo 4 / Arends 10 / Gamarra 12steady: Soisalo, Arends, Gamarra · rest risky	4	25–50	●
45	53	Tarbela Dam Dash	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	5	25–50	●
46	54	Sarajevo History Hillers	HL	single	Gamarracaptain	4	25–50	●
46	54	D´aguilar Downhill	—	single	Soisalocaptain	7	5–20	●
51	59	TT Zyte	TT	single	Arends 7 / Soisalo 7 / Texier 13steady: Arends, Soisalo · rest risky	7	5–20	●
51	59	Gold Coast - Gold Coast	TT	TOUR	Arends 8 / Soisalo 10 / Texier 17steady: Arends, Soisalo · rest risky	8	5–20	●
51	61	Sydney - Sydney	HLSP	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	6	25–50	●
52	60	Ovruch - Ovruch	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	8	5–20	●
56	64	Salamanca ITT	TT	single	Soisalo 7 / Arends 16 / Texier 20steady: Soisalo · rest risky	7	5–20	●
57	65	Confronto no Largo do Senado	CB	single	Tamascaptain	7	5–20	●
62	70	Firenze - Fiesole - Firenze	HLSP	single	Gamarracaptain	3	55–95	★
63	71	Hooglede GP	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	5	25–50	●
64	73	Kosivska Poliana - Rakhiv	—	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	9	5–20	●
65	74	Rio Grande prologue	TT	TOUR	Soisalo 5 / Arends 10 / Texier 20steady: Soisalo, Arends · rest risky	5	25–50	●
65	75	Tsjernivtsi - Ivano-Frankivsk	—	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	9	5–20	●
65	76	Kalush - Slavskev	—	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	3	55–95	★
66	25	Hellur GP	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	6	25–50	●
66	74	In the Khan´s Footsteps	—	single	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
66	77	Sambir - Lviv	—	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
70	78	Devils Bridge Race	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
70	78	Vlorë-Sarandë	HL	single	Gamarracaptain	5	25–50	●
71	79	La Unión de Dos Océanos	ODD	single	Gamarracaptain	5	25–50	●
72	80	Kokstad - Quachas Nek	—	single	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
73	81	Odense Enkeltstart	TT	single	Soisalo 8 / Arends 9 / Texier 14steady: Soisalo, Arends · rest risky	8	5–20	●
76	85	Stellenboch - Cape Point	—	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	9	5–20	●
76	86	Cape Town Round Tour	—	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	7	5–20	●
80	88	Boat of Garten - Bridge of Gaur	HL	single	Gamarracaptain	8	5–20	●
87	6	Lago Titicaca - La Paz	DH	TOUR	Gamarracaptain	8	5–20	●
89	7	Yarmouth GP	ALL	single	Gamarracaptain	6	25–50	●

★ Podium shot — predicted top 3 ● In the money — predicted 4th–9th ○ Fringe — TT only, where six entrants get a shot

The Path

To No 1 in Australia

Division-3 racing only, and revised down on 30 July after the downhill programme was withdrawn. Only the stretch case passes team+jayco into third; the central case leaves you fourth — ahead of last season, short of a place. Temora at 1,404 and agb at 1,810 are out of range on this roster. Presented as a band because the time trial rate rests on a thin sample.

Projected season build — cumulative points by programme

jayco 1,174

S77 actualwhere you are

856 pts · 4th in Australia

856

FloorS77 TT rate, no cobbles

TT ~340 + hills 300 · slightly below last season

790

Central casecombined TT rate

TT ~540 (126 starts × 4.29) + hills 400 + cobbles 50 · still 4th

990

Stretch+ TF on Gamarra

needs TF and the near-misses converting — draws level with Temora, inside the margin either way

1,200

Today Free — no transfers or cash Needs TF team+jayco 1,174 — 3rd place

The short version

856 → ~990 without a single transfer, on a range of 790 to 1,200. That is a real gain of roughly 130 points, driven almost entirely by entering the time trials you currently miss — but it leaves you fourth. team+jayco at 1,174 is only reachable at the top of the range.

This is a smaller claim than the first version of this page made, and deliberately so: the downhill programme that carried 200 of those points did not survive being checked against the actual fields. What remains is measured from your own results.

How to read the projections. Points-per-start figures and race-type returns are your own observed results from S77–78. Projected placings are calculated race score — Σ(stat × race weight) with tt weighted 1.2×, multiplied by age and experience — ranked against last season's top-30 finishers in each race. That is a targeting tool, not a forecast: it excludes lead-out and Team Spirit effects and per-race DP, so treat the totals as a range rather than a number. Two specific soft spots: Xia's hl potential is not externally visible, and a "none" rating would cap him at 40–49; and TT points-per-start will soften as you enter weaker-fitting races. Rider values and hirelist availability move daily. Predicted places assume Steady effort — they are expected values with no variance term, so a rider on Risky will land either side of them by a wide margin. What this does not model: breakaways (your own call, and BA success is documented as luck rather than skill), the lead-out and Team Spirit effect in road races, and per-race DP. Projections cover division-3 racing only. The time trial projections rest on a thin sample — three wins and a second place across 84 starts — so they are given as a range; strip the wins out and the rate falls from 6.79 to about 3.0 per start. One further note: World Championships ITT (U23) awards no ranking points at any placing, so entries there cannot score.